Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. When you add in the 42 electoral votes that are leaning in his direction, it brings his total to 232 electoral votes -- just 38 away from winning the presidency. Will a recovery be underway in a way most Americans can experience? Updated 2:40 PM ET, Sat September 5, 2020. When you combine that base of solid states with the additional 80 electoral votes that are currently leaning in his direction, it brings Trump's total to 205 electoral votes -- 65 votes away from reelection. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Will Biden be perceived as an acceptable alternative for Americans who are displeased with the country's current course? Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. It's been more than 30 years since a winning presidential candidate won more than 400 electoral votes, so blowout presidential elections are hard to come by. 2020 Electoral College map: The swing states key to victory and number of electors. Joe Biden: Who is the 2020 Democratic candidate? The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. 2020 Electoral College Map. This can happen a lot of ways. It allows our most engaged readers to debate the big issues, share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and more. All you need to do is shift each of the states by 0.75 point in Biden's direction from, Looking at the polling averages right now, this isn't a hard map to imagine either. Just imagine all the above scenarios, but flipping the winner of Nebraska's 2nd District. He also won in Wisconsin, which had not voted for a Republican since 1984. Will the country be in the midst of a resurgence of a spreading virus? As has become the norm in American presidential politics, the race to 270 electoral votes is almost certain to come down to a handful of battleground states. In 2016, more than 65 million voters cast ballots for then-candidate Hillary Clinton, three million more than Donald Trump. There are more, but this gives you insight into how it could happen. So, don't let all those national polls showing a big advantage for Joe Biden cloud your vision too much. CNN's John King breaks down the latest Electoral College projections three weeks away from the 2020 election as Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead in national polling average. Combined, a handful of swing states hold nearly half of the Electoral College votes needed to secure a victory. There will be much for people to quibble about here. 2020 Electoral College map: The swing states key to victory. You can also choose to be emailed when someone replies to your comment. Its goal is to reflect where the battle for 270 electoral votes is likely to be most engaged. Has the window closed for the President and his team to have a clean dominating shot at defining Biden in a negative light for voters? Donald Trump and Joe Biden are competing for crucial handful of states that could determine the presidency You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. Still, there are a number of different maps where either President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidency with just 270 electoral votes, or where the two of them each get 269 electoral votes. This map relies upon looking at the larger trend driving our politics. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast. In the 2020 race between incumbent Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden, several states – including some that president Trump won in 2016 – have emerged as key battlegrounds that election analysts have argued must be won by the candidate to win the presidency. Several other potential toss-up states that voted for Mr Trump in 2016 have emerged in the 2020 race, including Arizona and North Carolina. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. Michigan casts 16 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania has 20 and Wisconsin has 10. (CNN)There are many more unknowns than knowns nearly five months prior to Election Day 2020. Please be respectful when making a comment and adhere to our Community Guidelines. When their votes reach a majority (270 votes), that candidate is declared the winner. Voting is underway across the US ahead of Election Day, as millions of American voters cast ballots for dozens of candidates in local and federal elections. Over the coming months, states will move from lean to battleground status and back, but this initial snapshot is our best sense of where the campaigns believe the fall battle will be most engaged and where the most work will be done by both sides to sway voters to their candidate. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are competing for crucial handful of states that could determine the presidency, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile. However, we thought now is as good a time as any to publish a baseline state-of-play electoral map upon which all of those great unknowns will play out and alter as the months between now and the election unfold. As a candidate and as President, Trump has consistently disrupted political rules and norms. Please continue to respect all commenters and create constructive debates. Yes, at this current snapshot in time, it is clear that Biden has the advantage both nationally and in many key battleground states. He will need to find a way to defy that historical precedent and turn the contest into a choice -- made more of a challenge given the decades Biden has spent in the public life, including eight years as vice president. In 2016, Mr Trump squeezed ahead of candidate Clinton by razor-thin margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that had not voted for a Republican president since George HW Bush in 1988. Our journalists will try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of independent Premium. The former vice president has been working to close that gap as he attempts to consolidate all corners of the party following a competitive primary season that ended in March. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. Trump starts with a solid base of 125 electoral votes from 20 states that are most likely to be uncontested in the fall. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a … There are many more unknowns than knowns nearly five months prior to Election Day 2020. Perennial battleground states Ohio and Iowa – both of which went to Mr Trump in 2016 – are tracking for a repeat victory. The unknowns are pretty clear at this point too. Chances are that whoever wins the presidency will have a more comfortable margin than winning by the skin of their teeth. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. There are those who argue that Michigan has already drifted to leaning Democratic and there are those who believe New Hampshire and Nevada are true toss-ups or that North Carolina may not be really at risk for the President to lose. But the idea that this race is all wrapped up in June seems a bit far-fetched. Democrats also are vying for Texas, a longshot state that has not voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was elected in 1976, though it holds a massive share of 38 Electoral College votes. The plan was to follow in the footsteps of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama reelection campaigns and do so immediately following the primary season, when Biden was low on cash and not yet fully staffed up and in fighting form for a general election campaign. The President and his campaign have already previewed lots of potential avenues they intend to pursue, but how those attacks land is still far from clear. A state is allocated one elector for each of its members in the US House of Representatives (which has 435 seats) and in the Senate (which holds 100). This raises another unknown. It is an inaugural snapshot based upon conversations with Democratic and Republican operatives across the country, campaign aides and officeholders about how they all see the current landscape. What happens if there is a tie? This is perhaps one of the easiest maps to imagine. The president is, Right now, that would likely mean Trump would win. MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki breaks down the numbers. Polls in 2020 show a closer race in states that the president carried in 2016, though Democrats are hesitant to declare premature victory for the former vice president after optimistic polls in 2016 failed to glimpse Mr Trump’s stunning victories, flipping states that voted for Barack Obama in 2012.
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