Democratic voice is too strong in the Northeast. The early polling in this race has been almost universally unfavorable to McSally, putting this in the Democratic column for now. To be exact, there are 35 United States Senate elections going on around the country in 34 states. ELECTION 2020 PREDICTIONS: President | US House | Governors | Ranking the Senate Races by Flip Chances. Mark Kelly is extremely like-able across just about any demographic, and easy is an easy candidate to market as an American Hero (which he is). Still, the state is shifting blue as a whole and regardless of who ends up being the Democratic nominee, they will win the election and take Gardner’s seat in the house. Unlikely to see a Democrat elected in this deep red state. Still, numerous Democratic senators and advisors wasted no time taking to Twitter to be sure that Maine understood the connection here. His wife (Gabby Giffords) is also a former U.S. Representative. It could, but it looks like a close race. Democrats did very well in Georgia despite having an unpopular presidential candidate in 2016. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. Even a mildly unfavorable mood against incumbents or the president’s party would be difficult for Gardner. With smear campaigns that were so theatrical and viscous they will be remembered forever, the special election between Doug Jones and Roy Moore was historic. That Susan Collins helped Brett Kavanaugh get confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice, and that same Brett Kavanaugh voted no against gay-rights. John McCain held his seat in the Senate for nearly 32 years. North Carolina: Thom Tillis: Republican (41% approval in 2016). When you look deeper into the North Carolina Senate primaries, you can see there is a lot of division on the democratic side. Hard to see a Democrat winning in this deep red state. 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Senator Cory Gardner has already went in heavy on the ads. At least the probable Democratic nominee, Richard Ojeda, made some headlines for his 2018 House run, but West Virginia’s politics have changed so much in the last 20 years that it’s hard to picture any Democrat not named Manchin winning here now. Democrats will do very well in Delaware all the way down the ballot as a result. We’re calling this a lean Democrat hold given the strength of the party in the state. Our summary of the likely results of the senate elections of 2020 (assuming reasonably strong challengers) is: Neutral National Mood, Neutral Local Mood: 17 GOP Wins, 12 Democrat Wins, 4 Toss-ups; +1-5 Democrats, Moderately Favorable National Mood for Democrats, Neutral or Favorable Local Mood for Democrats: 16 GOP Wins, 16 Democrat Wins, 2 Toss-Ups; + 5-7 Democrats, Strong Favorable National Mood for Democrats, Moderate to Strong Local Mood for Democrats: 12 GOP wins, 17 Democrat wins, 4 Toss-Ups: +6-10 Democrats, Moderately Favorable National Mood for GOP, Neutral or Favorable Local Mood for GOP: 20 GOP Wins, 8 Democrat Wins, 5 Toss-Ups; (-2) – (+3) GOP; or (-3) – (+2) Democrats. He got elected in 2014 during the GOP’s Senate wave but now has to face a well-known former governor, John Hickenlooper, in a presidential year in which Donald Trump is not going to carry the state. Beating out the incumbent for a Senate seat in the blue state of Colorado. Mitch McConnell is very unlikely to lose Kentucky in a year in which Donald Trump will win the state in a landslide. Despite a lot of hope and belief by Democrats, we are still not buying that Lindsey Graham is going to lose. Those voters who voted for other republicans are voting for an ideology more than a person. But here is where it becomes a toss-up. April 4: I do not want to put any undue pressure on the parties or the Republican and Democratic candidates here, but control of the Senate may rely on who wins the North Carolina race. With Graham catching a break with the Constitution Party candidate dropping out and endorsing him, that will shore up his margin a little. Because Maine is generally a blue state and generally pro-gay rights. We don’t even know who the president will be next term, so the GOP doesn’t know exactly how many seats it has to defend to assure control of the Senate. April: The Republicans are in for an uphill battle in Michigan, as all of their Michigan Senate races have been for a few decades now. I say only 3 or 4 seats because in the event of a 50/50 split in the Senate, The Vice President becomes the tie breaker vote. LATEST SENATE POLLS. Including a 13-0 season with Auburn. Even if this were a midterm election, McConnell, who has been in the Senate for a long time and has obvious power, is a good bet to win. When Bill Cassidy got elected, it happened for the first time since Reconstruction. New Mexico is a state that has only incidental contact with Republican elected officials in this day and age; they are not favored to win this open seat. This year, it will be the Senate. Status: Democrats did surprisingly well here in the 2016 elections despite a good election overall for republicans. April 4: Republicans are not much of a viable entity in New Jersey, aside from the occasional moderate Republican getting elected governor. In 2014 he quickly became a star among the GOP.
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